价值投资案例:巴菲特投资可口可乐

Hello everyone, the topic shared with you today is《价值投资案例:巴菲特投资可口可乐》.

In the years before 1987, Buffett had been researching Coca-Cola. He believed that Coca-Cola's strong brand constituted a lasting competitive advantage. Together with the excellent management headed by Roberto Gurita, this business model with small capital expenditure will be in the future. Create a very good cash flow.

Buffett himself loves sweets and loves to drink Coke. Before the cherry cola had not appeared, he often poured some syrup into Pepsi. When he was a child, he was very interested in the bottle cap. He found that the Coca-Cola cap was surprisingly high in the bottle caps that were thrown around the retail machine, up to 80%.

Buffett asked himself, if you want to completely copy the Coca-Cola brand in a few years, how much capital investment is needed? In the end, he and his partner, Charlie Munger, concluded that even if the best marketing team on the planet wants to copy the brand of Coke, $100 billion can't be done! At the time, Coca-Cola's company had a market capitalization of about $15 billion. A brand alone is worth more than $100 billion. It can be bought for $15 billion. This is indeed a good deal!

World War II, Korean War, Vietnam War, Cold War, countless economic recessions, and the expulsion of the market in India in the 70th year. Throughout this process, Coca-Cola has grown year after year. Buffett and Munger asked their questions very simply: by 2000, 2025, 2050. What is the sales volume of Coca-Cola? This conclusion makes Buffett covet.

In 1886, Coca-Cola was first prepared, selling 5 cents for 8 ounces and 17 cents for 1986. If you consider the inflation rate, the 5 cents of the year is equivalent to a few dollars to buy a bottle of 8 ounces of cola in 1986. In a century, its unit price has dropped dramatically, which is a very unique phenomenon. Very few other consumer goods have reached such a price cut.

xx全世界数亿人从未尝过他们第一口可口可乐的味道。与此同时,与美国和欧洲相比,可乐的人均日消费量极小。但是,在未来几十年,世界人均收入水平将急剧上升。可口可乐的人均消费量将有很大的上升空间。

后来,在1989年巴菲特接受采访《塔特兰大宪章》的商业记者梅丽莎特纳时,巴菲特谈到了他最终决定购买可口可乐股票的想法。他说:“让我们假设你会去一个地方十年。在你出发之前,你计划进行投资,你知道一旦你进行投资,你就不能在十年内改变它你离开了。你怎么看?“当然,不用说,这项业务必须简单易懂。这项业务必须经过多年的证明,并且必须具有良好的前景。”如果我能成为当然,我相信市场会增长,我相信领导者仍将是领导者。我的意思是全世界,我相信销售额会大幅增长,除了可口可乐之外,其他公司不知道是否还有其他公司可以做到这一点,“巴菲特解释说。”我相对肯定当我回来时,他们会比今天做得更好。“

1988年,可口可乐的自由现金流为8.28亿美元。巴菲特估计,如果可口可乐的自由现金流在未来十年内保持15%的增长,自由现金流将达到33.49亿美元。这是一个合理的估计,因为它低于过去七年的平均增长率。从第11年开始,增长率已降至每年5%。折扣率为9%(即当时的长期政府债券收益率),可以推断,1988年可口可乐的内在价值为483.77亿美元。

假设可口可乐未来十年的自由现金流增长率为12%,10年后增长率为5%。估计折扣率为9%,可口可乐当时的内在价值为381.63亿美元。如果未来十年在十年后增长10%和5%,那么内在价值为324.7亿美元。即使可口可乐未来的所有增长率仅为5%,该公司仍将至少拥有207亿美元。

当时,可口可乐的市值仅为150亿美元。可口可乐的内在价值远远高于可口可乐150亿美元的市值。所以巴菲特认为可口可乐被严重低估了。

可口可乐公司在1987年也陷入困境。此外,1987年10月美国股市大幅下跌,导致股市崩盘,因此可口可乐的股价低迷,市值低于150亿美元。

机会来了,巴菲特1988年购买可口可乐股票5.93亿美元,1989年几乎翻了一番,总投资额增加到10.24亿美元。 1991年,它涨至37.43亿美元,两年内上涨2.66倍,甚至巴菲特也感到意外。他很高兴在伯克希尔1991年的年度报告中说:“三年前我们购买可口可乐股票时,伯克希尔的净资产约为34亿美元,但现在我们持有可口可乐的股票市值超过这个数字。”

1994年,公司继续增持,总投资额达13亿美元。截至1998年底,巴菲特在可口可乐的股票市值为134亿美元,比10年增长约11倍,平均复合年收益率约为27%。截至2016年底,除去股息后,巴菲特的收入已超过150亿美元。这是巴菲特最具传奇色彩和最成功的股票投资案例。

最后,祝大家投资愉快!

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